The decision loop
- Estimate fair value from current information.
- Choose a bid, ask and size.
- Interpret whether a trade is informed or noisy.
- Update fair value and inventory risk.
- Widen, tighten or skew the next market.
A profitable trade can still be a poor decision if the expected value was negative. Debriefs separate realized P&L from quote quality.
Progression
Begin with known fair value. Add computation, uncertain estimates, informative trades, inventory and multiple changing rounds. Training mode explains errors. Interview mode delays the feedback.
What to measure
Track fair-value error, spread quality, inventory exposure, adverse-selection loss, response speed, theoretical value captured and realized P&L.
Make the next market.
Run a live six-round simulation with changing fair value and mixed counterparty flow.
Start simulation